Chapter 1. Introduction and Need for Risk Management 1 --
II. Some Historical Program Outcomes 2 --
III. Microeconomic Framework 6 --
II. Risk Management Process Steps 25 --
III. Some Risk Management Implementation Guidelines 34 --
IV. Risk Management Activities During DoD Acquisition Phases 37 --
Chapter 3. Some Risk Management Implementation Considerations 41 --
II. Risk Management Process 51 --
III. Risk Management Process Integration 65 --
IV. Risk Management Process Effectiveness 67 --
V. Risk Management, the Program Life Cycle, and Time-Frame Considerations 75 --
VI. Risk Management Training 78 --
VIII. Cost and Benefits of Risk Management 87 --
IX. Some Risk Management Implementation Considerations 90 --
X. Documenting and Communicating Risk Management Results 103 --
XI. Risk Categories 107 --
XII. Organizational Considerations and Risk Management Process Implementation 111 --
XIII. Support for Risk Management Within the Program 120 --
XIV. Some Behavioral Issues Associated with Implementation 127 --
XV. Government/Contractor Risk Management Processes 155 --
XVI. Some Contractual Considerations 156 --
Chapter 4. Some Risk Planning Considerations 177 --
II. Need for Risk Planning 177 --
IV. Some Risk Management Plan Considerations 179 --
Chapter 5. Some Risk Identification Considerations 187 --
II. Some Risk Identification Considerations 187 --
Chapter 6. Some Risk Analysis Considerations 201 --
II. Risk Analysis Process 211 --
III. Representation of Risk 225 --
IV. Risk Analysis Methodology 237 --
V. Methodologies and Issues for Some Risk Categories 287 --
VI. Application of Risk Analysis Methodology 294 --
VII. Probability Distributions in Risk Analysis 299 --
VIII. Monte Carlo Simulations 320 --
IX. Portraying Risk Analysis Results 336 --
Chapter 7. Some Risk Handling Considerations 365 --
Chapter 8. Some Risk Monitoring Considerations 389 --
Appendix A. Comparison of Risk Management for Commercial and Defense Programs 401 --
I. Some Acquisition Differences 401 --
II. Examination of Some Risk Management Issues 403 --
III. Likely Risk Categories for Commercial and DoD/NASA Programs 405 --
Appendix B. Current DoD Program Phases and Milestones 413 --
II. Concept and Technology Development 413 --
III. System Development and Demonstration 415 --
IV. Production and Deployment 417 --
V. Operations and Support 418 --
VI. Previous DoD Program Phases and Milestones 420 --
Appendix C. Comparison of the Microeconomic Framework to Actual DoD Program Outcomes 427 --
I. Data Collection and Analysis 427 --
II. First Hypothesis 428 --
III. Second Hypothesis 429 --
IV. Third Hypothesis 429 --
V. Fourth Hypothesis 429 --
VI. Fifth Hypothesis 430 --
Appendix D. Some Characteristics of the Cost-Performance Slice of the Technical Possibility Surface 431 --
Appendix E. Changing the Definition of Risk
II. What is Risk? What is Opportunity? 436 --
III. Understanding Project Risk and Opportunity 437 --
IV. Risk Management in Projects 438 --
V. Are Opportunities Really Being Missed? 441 --
VI. Practical Issues Opposing the Change in Definition 446 --
VII. Risk Management Is for Adults 447 --
VIII. Conflict of Interest 448 --
IX. Improving Risk Management Practice 449 --
Appendix F. Program Structure Models 453 --
II. Traditional Model 453 --
III. Grand Design Model 454 --
IV. Incremental Model 454 --
V. Evolutionary Model 454 --
Appendix G. Sample Language for Including Risk Management in an RFP and Evaluating It During Source Selection 457 --
I. Proposal Preparation Instructions (Section L) for Technical and/or Management Proposal or Presentation
II. Proposal Preparation Instructions (Section L) for Technical and/or Management Proposal or Presentation
Appendix H. Some Characteristics and Limitations of Ordinal Scales in Risk Analyses 461 --
I. Some Classes of Ordinal "Probability" Scales 461 --
II. Some Additional Examples of Invalid Mathematical Operations Performed on Ordinal Scale Values 465 --
III. Some Specific Deficiencies with Ordinal Scales 467 --
IV. Estimating Consequence of Occurrence with Ordinal Scales 472 --
V. Other Classes of Ordinal Scales 475 --
VI. Upper and Lower Bounds for Ordinal Scales 476 --
VII. Calibration of Ordinal Scales 477 --
VIII. Interpolation Between Uncalibrated and Calibrated Ordinal Scale Levels 482 --
Appendix I. Example Technical Risk Analysis 485 --
Appendix J. Estimative Probability Values for Subjective Probability Statements 491 --
IV. Survey Results 497 --
Appendix K. Development of Ordinal Probability Scales from Cardinal Data 515 --
I. Data Collection and Reduction 515 --
II. Probability Scale Development 517.