List of tables -- List of figures -- List of boxes -- Preface -- Acknowledgments -- Preamble : some initial intuitions on financial fragility and the fickle nature of confidence -- pt. I. Financial crises : an operational primer -- 1. Varieties of crises and their dates -- Crises defined by quantitative thresholds : inflation, currency crashes, and debasement -- Crises defined by events : banking crises and external and domestic default -- Other key concepts -- 2. Debt intolerance : the genesis of serial default -- Debt thresholds -- Measuring vulnerability -- Clubs and regions -- Reflections on debt intolerance -- 3. A global database on financial crises with a long-term view -- Prices, exchange rates, currency debasement, and real GDP -- Government finances and national accounts -- Public debt and its composition -- Global variables -- Country coverage -- pt. II. Sovereign external debt crises -- 4. A digression on the theoretical underpinnings of debt crises -- Sovereign lending -- Illiquidity versus insolvency -- Partial default and rescheduling -- Odious debt -- Domestic public debt -- Conclusions -- 5. Cycles of sovereign default on external debt -- Recurring patterns -- Default and banking crises -- Default and inflation -- Global factors and cycles of global external default -- The duration of default episodes -- 6. External default through history -- The early history of serial default : emerging Europe, 1300--1799 -- Capital inflows and default : an "old world" story -- External sovereign default after 1800 : a global picture --
pt. III. The forgotten history of domestic debt and default -- 7. The stylized facts of domestic debt and default -- Domestic and external debt -- Maturity, rates of return, and currency composition -- Episodes of domestic default -- Some caveats regarding domestic debt -- 8. Domestic debt : the missing link explaining external default and high inflation -- Understanding the debt intolerance puzzle -- Domestic debt on the eve and in the aftermath of external default -- The literature on inflation and the "inflation tax" -- Defining the tax base : domestic debt or the monetary base? -- The "temptation to inflate" revisited -- 9. Domestic and external default : which is worse? Who is senior? -- Real GDP in the run-up to and the aftermath of debt defaults -- Inflation in the run-up to and the aftermath of debt defaults -- The incidence of default on debts owed to external and domestic creditors -- Summary and discussion of selected issues -- pt. IV. Banking crises, inflation, and currency crashes -- 10. Banking crises -- A preamble on the theory of banking crises -- Banking crises : an equal-opportunity menace -- Banking crises, capital mobility, and financial liberalization -- Capital flow bonanzas, credit cycles, and asset prices -- Overcapacity bubbles in the financial industry? -- The fiscal legacy of financial crises revisited -- Living with the wreckage : some observations -- 11. Default through debasement : an "old world favorite" -- 12. Inflation and modern currency crashes -- An early history of inflation crises -- Modern inflation crises : regional comparisons -- Currency crashes -- The aftermath of high inflation and currency collapses -- Undoing domestic dollarization --
pt. V. The U.S. subprime meltdown and the second great contraction
13. The U.S. subprime crisis : an international and historical comparison
A global historical view of the subprime crisis and its aftermath
The this-time-is-different syndrome and the run-up to the subprime crisis
Risks posed by sustained U.S. borrowing from the rest of the world : the debate before the crisis
The episodes of postwar bank-centered financial crisis
A comparison of the subprime crisis with past crises in advanced economies
14. The aftermath of financial crises
Historical episodes revisited
The downturn after a crisis : depth and duration
The fiscal legacy of crises
Comparisons with experiences from the first great contraction in the 1930s
15. The international dimensions of the subprime crisis : the results of contagion or common fundamentals?
Selected earlier episodes
Common fundamentals and the second great contraction
Are more spillovers under way?
16. Composite measures of financial turmoil
Developing a composite index of crises : the BCDI index
Defining a global financial crisis
The sequencing of crises : a prototype
pt. VI. What have we learned?
17. Reflections on early warnings, graduation, policy responses, and the foibles of human nature
On early warnings of crises
The role of international institutions
Some observations on policy responses
The latest version of the this-time-is-different syndrome
A.1. Macroeconomic time series
A.3. Dates of banking crises
A.4. Historical summaries of banking crises
