Predicting our climate future: what we know, what we don't know, and what we can't know

Part 1: Characteristics. The obvious and the obscure

A problem of prediction

Going beyond what we've seen

The one-shot bet

From chaos to pandemonium

The curse of bigger and better computers

Talking at cross-purposes

Not just of academic interest

Part 2: Challenges. Challenge 1: how to balance justified arrogance with essential humility? Stepping up to the task of prediction ; The times they are a-changin' ; Starting from scratch ; Are scientists being asked to answer impossible questions?

Challenge 2: Tying down what we mean by climate and climage change. The essence of climate ; A walk in three dimensions ; A walk in three dimensions over a two-dimensional sea

Challenge 3: When is a study with a climate model a study of climate change? Climate change in climate models

Challenge 4: How can we measure what climate is now and how it has changed? Measuring climate change

Challenge 5: How can we relate what happens in a model to what will happen in reality? Can climate models be realistic? ; More models, better information? ; How bad is too bad?

Challenge 6: How can we use today's climate science well? What we do with what we've got

Challenge 7: Getting a grip on the scale of future changes in climate. Stuff of the Genesis myth ; Things... can only get hotter

Challenge 8: How can we use the information we have, or could have, to design a future that is better than it would otherwise be? Making it personal ; Where physics and economics meet

Challenge 9: How can we build physical and social science that is up to the task of informing society about what matters for society? Controlling factors ; Beyond comprehension? No, just new challenges for human intellect.